Marlies Hoecherl explains why Europe is better prepared than the UK for no deal

I have not encountered any anti-British sentiments on my recent business travels, but rather bafflement at how Britain ended up in this situation (sentiment that is repeatedly echoed on British soil) and bewilderment at the British parliamentary process.  

I have also been asked numerous times as to why the British  debate is not taking into account the overall effect on Europe and the shift of political power from the finely balanced triangle consisting of the UK, Germany and France, to either a French-German double act, which is not considered a great option, or perhaps a shift towards Spain as the third player?

On balance, most European people I have spoken to would still prefer the UK to stay in the EU, especially Scandinavians who have always regarded the UK as an ally and spokesperson for their concerns.

In terms of the effects of Brexit on individual countries, there are both positives and negatives and they differ from country to country. Germany sees Brexit as an opportunity to put Frankfurt on the map as the Financial Services Centre and Berlin as the new hub of all things tech, but Germany is currently experiencing a lot of problems with the automotive industry and is heading for a technical recession, so tariffs in the supply chain with Britain and issues with certificate of origin on exports to third-party countries will only add to their headaches.  

Macron, however faces pressure to prove his worth to the French electorate. He would like Paris to be the new financial services centre and has so far attracted a fair number of people, but ultimately, he will have to be pragmatic. There are currently a lot of French people working and living in the UK, particularly London. Indeed, London is often regarded as something of a French outpost. Equally, a large percentage of British expats are living in France. In the case of a hard Brexit in particular it is likely that a lot of French people will pack their bags and return to France, as many of the opportunities currently available in London will be lost. 

Spain’s economy has improved over the last few years and Madrid is currently a buzzing city. Spain will undoubtedly benefit from the EU Agreement with South American countries, which is in the process of being finalised, but the fall of Sterling and potential queues at passport controls will deter tourists from the UK – a material source of Spain’s income. 

Malta is positioning itself as a gateway to Europe post Brexit due to a shared language, continuing joint healthcare arrangement and cultural ties with the UK. It also sees opportunities in the gambling industry. Whether these plans will come off remains to be seen and the fluctuation in sterling may also be an issue for the tourism industry in Malta.  

Despite all of these factors, it is important to remember that trade between the UK and France/Spain/ Germany and Malta will not stop overnight. Prepared businesses will hedge their risks, rise to the challenge and hopefully common sense will prevail, whatever the outcome of Brexit. After all, if there is one thing Britain is particularly good at – and much better than its European neighbours – it is muddling through adversity.